Saturday Service Play Thread 12/17/2022

[BuzzKill]

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[doczano]

Northcoast Newsletter Keys

Power Plays
Louisville 20
Cincinnati 17 No play

Jackson St 30
NC Central
25 3*

BYU 40 2* Over 2*
SMU
41

Fresno State 26 1*
Wash State
25

Rice
15
So. Miss 27 1*

Florida 27 1*
Oregon St
31

Boise State 30
North Texas
28 3*

 

[doczano]

Northcoast Newsletter Keys

Power Plays
NFL
Baltimore 21
Cleveland 20 no play

Indianapolis 17
Minnesota
28 4* (1* play on power sweep)

Miami 17
Buffalo
30 no play (2* play on power sweep)

 

[BuzzKill]

Stanford Steve and the Bear: College football bowl game picks, bets and nuggets - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-516#post-14032638

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-516#post-14033439

 

[Sleez]

Tom Stryker

53-17 ATS NFL System Play of the Week

Baltimore Ravens

 

[Sleez]

King Creole

3* Under 52.5 or more Fresno St/Wash St

3* Over 48 or less Indy/Minnesota

 

[Sleez]

Gianni The Greek

307) over 47.5 indianapolis-minnesota…(4%)

306) cleveland ml (-150)…(4%)

 

[HowBoutThemCowboys!]

anybody have any clue what happened to Cal Poly San Luis Obispo Friday Night against Weber State? They have been making me money, but then just folded Friday night. Did somebody for Cal Poly SLO get hurt againt Washington on Tuesday night or did Weber State have players back they didn't have for their previous games? What the heck happened?

and here's AJ Hoffman's picks:

UFC Fight Night 216
UFC Fight Night 216


David Dvorak +210 1*

I have long been a fan of Manel Kape, mostly due to his incredible fight finishing power. But the number on him is too wide against an opponent as sharp and durable as Dvorak. Dvorak has never been stopped by anyone but a doctor, and if he can take some of Kape’s offense early on, it leaves him in a good position to take over this fight. Dvorak is a nasty leg kicker, and the last thing you want if you are a Kape backer is for him to be chopped down by leg kicks, taking power out of those punches. This is one of the best matched bouts on the card, so getting +210 is too juicy for me to pass on.

Said Nurmagomedov +100 2*

Said is the Nurmagomedov with no relation to Khabib, and his game is certainly different than Khabib’s. He relies on a super accurate striking game and length that keeps him out of firefights. Kakhramonov is a pressure fighter who sacrifices defense for offense. I think there will be spots where he makes Nurmagomedov uncomfortable, but Said’s precision is too much for me to overlook in this matchup. We are getting the more experienced, and more technical fighter at a dog price.


Jake Matthews By Decision +140 1*

Semelsberger has some real physical gifts, but he is far from complete as a fighter. He relies a lot on aggression, but when hit back with offense he regresses into a patient counterstrikes, which he isn’t good enough to be. Matthews, on the other hand, has spent most of his career fighting the safe way. He is the better striker and the better grappler in this match, but he is not the type of fighter to go in for the kill against a dangerous opponent. Semelsberger was just picked apart by Alex Morono for 3 rounds, and I see a very similar result coming here. Morono took chances that Matthews won’t, but Matthews is also more than willing to take Semelsberger down and control him on the mat.


Cheyanne Vlismas By Decision +105 3*

Vlismas is back after some time off, but she comes into a matchup where she has all the advantages. She is the much more dynamic athlete in this matchup, and should be able to keep things at range where she is most comfortable. McKenna isn’t great at anything but being tough. She is slow and plodding, but doesn’t back down and maybe has some advantages here if she can drag this to the mat. I don’t really see a path for that, though, and envision Vlismas picking her apart for 3 rounds en route to a lopsided decision.


Amir Albazi Inside This Distance -135 2*

Albazi is a very complete fighter who relies on great technique and savvy more than ultra physical advantages. He has not been tested much in his first 3 fights in the UFC, and instead of a big step up fight against Brandon Royval he is now facing a UFC newcomer in Costa. The film on Costa is not thrilling, though he does carry some nice power at this weight class. The assumption is that Albazi is eventually able to get this to the mat, though, and Costa won’t have any answers in that world.


Armen Tsarukyan By Decision +125 1*

I think this is the best fight on the card. Tsarukyian is 5-2 in the UFC, but his first fight came on short notice against Islam Makhachev (whom he gave a tough fight) and a terrible decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot, whom he did significantly more damage to. Ismagulov is unbeaten in the UFC, but his lack of top end of athleticism makes his margins for success very thin. Tsarukyan should be at his best early in the fight, with Ismagulov’s durability keeping him in it late. I believe the former gets enough done in the first two rounds that he takes the decision win.

Jared Cannonier -110 1*
Cannonier By KO/TKO +275 1*

Coin flip main event, and I think there are two possible outcomes here. One is that Cannonier fights like he did against Adesanya, where he was unwilling to take any risks and essentially got booed out of the building. If that is the case, Strickland’s pacing could be a real problem and he will cruise. The most likely option is that Cannonier, who is 39 years old, realizes that the only shot he has at getting back to a title shot is to not only win, but win in impressive and fan-friendly fashion. This was where Strickland was overwhelmed against Pereira in July, where he suffered a NASTY knockout loss. Expect Cannoniers aggression to be the difference in this matchup.

 

[JayGrace]

Jeff Ma- 37-29-1-
Vikings
ravens
Giants
Patriots
Marshall - bowl game

 

[JayGrace]

Scott Van Pelt’s Winners: 74-53-3 record
UTSA-1
Rice+6.5
BYU+4
Colts+4
Bears+9
Jaguars+4
Titans+3
Bucs+3.5

Stanford Steve’s Pick:
Bills-7

 

[HowBoutThemCowboys!]

AJ Hoffman | CFB Side	Sat, 12/17/22 - 5:45 PM
214 Southern Miss. -6.5 (-110) William Hill vs 213 Rice	triple-dime bet

Analysis:

Southern Miss a little undervalued now with a viable quarterback. This is one of the few plays I am going to have during bowl season where motivaŽtion isn't a big edge.

QB play is certainly better than it was early in the season. And Rice just doesn't have the talent to hang in this game. It looks like Frank Gore will play, so I will take the Eagles to roll the Owls.

Pick Made: Dec 12 2022 2:48PM PST

AJ Hoffman | CFB Side	Sat, 12/17/22 - 3:30 PM
211 Fresno St. -3.0 (-110) BetOnline vs 212 Washington St.	double-dime bet

Analysis:

One of the games where it would have been nice to bet this at open, but letting things settle a little here is good because now we know Haener is planning on playing for Fresno.

On the other hand, we should expect plenty o‰f opt outs for Wazzu, including nearly their entire receiving corps, a good piece of their secondary and their defensive coordinator.

I think Fresno is on a mission to prove they would have been able to make some noise had they stayed healthy this year, and the fact that Haener is playing tells me the Bulldogs are locked in on this game.

Pick Made: Dec 12 2022 4:07PM PST

AJ Hoffman | CFB Total	Sat, 12/17/22 - 9:15 PM
218 North Texas / 217 Boise St. Over 59.0 Circa Sports	triple-dime bet

Analysis:

3*
UNT/Boise OVER 59

Write up to come.

Pick Made: Dec 15 2022 9:23PM PST



on the radio show also gave Southern Miss (214) minus 6.5 and UNDER 41 UConn/Marshall (219/220)

 

[bribux]

nba-martingale

2 UNITS
Oklahoma City Thunder – Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 @ 2.30

 

[bribux]

englandbet uk

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP
Burnley – Middlesbrough
Burnley @ 2.00

 

[cryingoutloud]

August Young CFB 7u Florida

 

[JayGrace]

Brad Feinberg
Browns
Jets
Chargers

 

[gargamel]

Big Al

NHL
1* Oilers -1.5 goals (at -125 odds)

NBA
3* Bucks -5
1* Wizards +6.5
1* Thunder +7.5

NCAAB
1* Kansas -5.5
1* Gonzaga +1.5
1* Florida International +16.5 (Conf. USA GOM)
1* Rice -5.5
1* Syracuse -9
1* St. Louis -5.5
1* Oklahoma St. -4

NCAAF
4* Florida +8.5
4* Washington St. +4
1* Louisville/Cincinnati Over 38.5 (Bowl Total of the Week)
1* N. Texas +11, 9:15 pm

NFL
4* Colts +4 (NFL GOM)
1* Bills/Dolphins Over 43 (Division Total of the Month)

 

[MikeF]

Any root

 

[crawdads2424]

Any root

1. You should at least look if his games have been released.
2. You should probably buy something some day (almost every post you have made is asking for picks)

 

[down5k]

Teddy Covers C* Boise -10.5